Manifest 2025 Update: Still A Tech Bro Eugenics Conference

Manifest, the conference for the prediction market website Manifold, is happening this weekend on June 6th. Prediction markets are essentially gambling for arbitrary world events rather than sports and Manifest, billed as a "festival for forecasts, markets, and novel ideas", promises to draw enthusiasts of the concept. However, the "novel ideas" promoted by Manifest's attendees have often turned out to be poorly-disguised libertarianism and eugenics.

This isn't new - Manifest has literally made the news for its connections with eugenicists in prior years. In 2024, The Guardian covered both the conference and the litany of race scientists who were invited as guests. The Guardian's investigation also detailed the purchase of Manifest's venue by the Center for Applied Rationality, a non-profit tied to the insular "Rationalist" community centered around the LessWrong forum.

The Rationalist community is preoccupied with a potential AI apocalypse, as are followers of the related utilitarian philosophies of effective altruism (EA) and "longtermism"^[1]. These ideologies are firmly implanted in many Silicon Valley AI companies and have a long history of being connected to right-wing racists^[2]. The Guardian's expose included a quote from Yale professor Daniel HoSang highlighting this cozy relationship: "the ties between a sector of Silicon Valley investors, effective altruism and a kind of neo-eugenics are subtle but unmistakable".

Manifest 2025 is no different. The racists featured on the event's website include returning guests Richard Hanania (who once wrote a piece called "Why (EA) Will Be Anti-Woke or Die"), Razib Khan^[3], and Steve Hsu, all of whom were shown by The Guardian to have ties to eugenicist and right-wing groups. Professor HoSang specifically called out the latter's attendance, stating that "the presence of Stephen Hsu here is particularly alarming”. In addition, Jordan "Crémieux" Lasker, a race scientist I extensively covered in a recent exposé is also now a scheduled speaker at Manifest after attending as a private individual in 2024.

Substack co-founder and CEO Chris Best also returns to Manifest in 2025, this time bringing along a "Platinum" tier corporate sponsorship of the event from his company. Bizarrely, Substack will apparently also be hosting^[4] an auction with Rationalist writer and sex worker Aella which may include a used dildo and "gangbang robe" for sale. As I discovered in my recent investigation into Chris Best's far-right sympathies, both Best and Aella are part of the same network of bloggers and have promoted an explicitly eugenicist Substack by the name of Aporia that has been described as "unambiguous white supremacist propaganda" in the news. This demonstrates a conscious decision on the part of Substack's leadership to continue associating with and supporting known racists working to mainstream scientific racism.

Questionable Talks

Several of the scheduled talks on Manifest's schedule are eyebrow-raising; in particular, "Reversible Cryopreservation" and "Futurist theory of traditionalism" point to the overlap of obsession with science fiction and libertarian politics often seen in many enthusiasts of AI and prediction markets. One of the talks entitled "Should schools pursue excellence" has a description claiming that "schools have de-prioritized raising the ceiling", mirroring the theme of a presentation called "The Academic and Career Trajectories of Underqualified College Admits" given by Lasker at Stanford University's "Classical Liberalism Initiative" talk series last year.

The series is run by professor Ivan Marinovic out of the university's Graduate School of School. He has hosted other right-wing and anti-diversity lectures. Examples of lectures include "Race and the Origins of Wokism" by "race realist" Nathan Cofnas who was fired from his academic position for racism and "From Hysteria to Gender Dysphoria" by anti-trans activist Mia Hughes^[5].

Interestingly, Iván Marinovic has previously published research on prediction markets, indicating that the relationship between the prediction markets and racist, pro-eugenics attitudes extends further into the past than previously realized. This is especially interesting in light of the research showing that such markets are vulnerable to bias when traders have social or professional relationships with each other.

Why are there journalists here?

Joining the racists at Manifest are a number of prominent liberal journalists and pundits slated who should, quite frankly, know better than to hang out with these types. They include Kevin Roose, crypto and AI booster at the The New York Times, Dylan Matthews of Vox^[6], Democratic political consultant David Shor, statistician Nate Silver and economics blogger Noah Smith.

Several of these writers were also guests at Manifest in earlier years: Nate Silver was present at Manifest 2024 while Kevin Roose and Dylan Matthews were there in 2023. After the prominent negative press around last years' event, it's hard to imagine that they didn't know about Manifest's association with eugenicists. Like the organizers of Manifest, members of establishment media going to Manifest made a conscious decision to attend knowing the racist, pro-eugenics crowd it attracts - one that doesn't reflect well on their employers.

There's a well known anecdote about a punk bartender kicking out a Nazi immediately after walking in, knowing that allowing him to stay meant that he would eventually bring his friends with him and eventually turn the place into a Nazi bar. This analogy has already been applied to Chris Best's moderation of Substack and it definitely applies to Manifest: a conference where racists are tolerated for years eventually becomes a conference of racists. I struggle to think of a good reason why such prominent figures in politics and tech would associate themselves with such an event.